Offshore staff
OSLO, Norway – INEOS’ announcement yesterday that it would postpone its scheduled maintenance for the Forties pipeline system (FPS) in the UK central North Sea could add several hundred thousands of extra barrels a day to the market, Rystad Energy has warned.
The consultant has consequently raised its North Sea oil production forecast by 330,000 b/d to 2.96 MMb/d for June 2020 and by 190,000 b/d to 3.04 MMb/d for July.
Rystad Energy oil market analyst Milan Rudel said: “This just adds another ripple to the growing oversupply pool of global liquids – an overhang for 2Q20 that is already so incomprehensibly massive that it will eventually force shut-ins as oil prices fall below short-run marginal costs and logistical challenges arise.”
E&P companies are trying to keep oil flowing during the COVID-19 outbreak while cutting back on all other scheduled activities, including offshore maintenance.
Bringing in maintenance crews for turnarounds increase human-to-human contact, with more people working on platforms and more rotation.
Although INEOS has postponed the FPS maintenance until August 2020 at the earliest, Rystad foresees a case for delaying it to 2021.
The pipeline system transports oil from UK and Norwegian fields in the central North Sea to Cruden Bay in Scotland.
In addition, Rystad expects maintenance of the Scottish Area Gas Evacuation (SAGE) pipeline to be delayed in line with FPS maintenance, as several fields connected to FPS feed gas into the SAGE system.
03/26/2020
