From 2021-2025, Rystad Energy forecasts a record 592 offshore project commitments: 356 shallow water, 181 deepwater, and 55 ultra-deepwater. Deepwater commitments are expected to see the largest growth as their cost has now become much more competitive against greenfield continental shelf reserves. In terms of greenfield expenditure, it expects offshore project commitments in 2021-25 to be worth more than $480 billion, eclipsing the 2016-20 tally of around $320 billion by 50%. In the 2011-15 period, about $673 billion worth of commitments were made. Rystad expects ultra-deepwater activity to be primarily concentrated in South America, with more than 50% of the total committed value, while the Middle East is likely to lead shelf developments with 40% of the total value.
