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NORTH AMERICA REPORT Predicted hurricane action to affect Texas, western Florida Six hurricanes forecast to strike North America

June 1, 1995

Coastal areas along the North American continent are rated by risk of sustaining a hurricane strike during 1995. Ten named tropical storms, six of which will reach hurricane intensity, are forecast for the 1995 North American continent. Most tropical storms either originate in the US Gulf of Mexico or enter the water body after originating elsewhere. The prediction was made by Houston-based Weather Research Center.

Coastal areas along the North American continent are rated by risk of sustaining a hurricane strike during 1995.

Ten named tropical storms, six of which will reach hurricane intensity, are forecast for the 1995 North American continent. Most tropical storms either originate in the US Gulf of Mexico or enter the water body after originating elsewhere. The prediction was made by Houston-based Weather Research Center. Meteorologists at the center say that sections of the US coastline with the highest probabilities of experiencing a storm are the western coastline of Florida and the entire coastline of Texas. Each coastal area shares a 70% chance of a topical storm or hurricane making landfall there this year.

Coastal risks

Other areas of North America, namely Mexico, the eastern coast of Florida, and the US coastline above North Carolina have much lower risks of receiving a serious storm or hurricane in 1995. The stretch of coastline including Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama, which has been the landfall of some of the most serious hurricanes, has only a 50% chance of seeing a serious hurricane this year. Canada does not experience tropical storms and hurricanes, although coastlines there do receive the brunt of serious storms originating in Pacific and Arctic regions. Major tropical storms and hurricanes typically result in an evacuation of offshore production platforms, mobile rigs, and gas compression structures. Production, compression, and drilling operations are halted, as well as contract activity such as pipelaying, towing of drilling units, re-supply operations, and other support activity.

Cyclone index

Tropical storms can begin as early as May and as late as December. The hurricane season for North America typically begins in June and ends by November. The Weather Research Centers outlook is based on the Orbital Cyclone Strike Index. This index was developed in the mid-1980s by Dr. John Freeman and Jill F. Hasling to make a seasonal outlook of Atlantic cyclone activity.

The index has performed well in predicting which part of the North American coastline has the highest probability and also the number of storms expected during each season. The index cannot be used to forecast the period of a lack of activity.