Industry set to maintain high-impact drilling levels

Offshore staff

LONDON – High-impact exploration drilling performance improved last year, according to Westwood Global Energy Group.

The overall discovered resource rose by 16%, helped by various large frontier finds.

Supermajors and NOCs continue to dominate high-impact drilling, with Exxon Mobil, TotalEnergies, CNOOC, Equinor and Shell the most active explorers during 2018-2022, Westwood estimates.

CNOOC and bp discovered the most new resources at >3 Bboe net, while CNOOC and Hess delivered the highest commercial success rate at >60%.

The TotalEnergies-operated Venus oil discovery offshore Namibia early last year and opening of the surrounding Orange Basin helped global frontier exploration commercial success rates reach a record high last year of 25% of wells drilled.

But a "fast follower" strategy has typically not worked for emerging plays, Westwood cautioned, with 90% of resource in plays opened since 2013 uncovered by those in frontier acreage at the time of discovery.

High-impact oil and gas discoveries normally take ~12 years from initial license award to enter production. Currently, 55% of the high-impact oil and 40% of the high-impact gas discovered since 2008 is in production or sanctioned for development, while 18% of the oil and 48% of the gas discovered are not at present being progressed.

The industry looks set to sustain exploration at current levels at least through to 2030, Westwood concluded, creating portfolio options with future demand uncertain.

05.19.2023