The World Bank Group has issued its “Scenarios for Offshore Wind Development in Brazil” report, prepared by DNV and written in partnership with Vieira Rezende Advogados and Magalhães Reis Figueiró Advogados.
It shows that Brazil's offshore wind energy potential could exceed 1,200 GW, with 480 GW from fixed offshore wind developments and 748 GW from floating projects.
The report outlines three different growth scenarios:
- Base Case: 16 GW by 2050, or 3% of the country’s total generation capacity;
- Intermediate: 32 GW by 2050 (6% of total generation capacity); and
- Ambitious: 96 GW by 2050, comprising nearly 20% of the generation mix.
Offshore wind development in Brazil could complement hydroelectric power, reducing variability and providing a buffer during dry periods. It would also support the government’s green hydrogen targets, potentially creating up to 516,000 full-time equivalent jobs and contributing $168 billion in national gross value under the Ambitious scenario.
In addition, it could lead to more efficient local electricity generation through reducing transmission losses by aligning resources with demand centers such as major cities.
The challenges include initial high costs that would require concessional finance and strategic seabed rights allocations.
There would also need to be investment in transmission upgrades and grid flexibility. Upgrading regional ports, logistics infrastructure and the offshore wind supply chain to support production of larger turbines would also push up costs.
But the report claims that planning, collaboration and targeted investments could help overcome these obstacles.
