Potential gas projects offshore Guyana and Suriname could bring new LNG supplies to the global market by the early 2030s, according to Wood Mackenzie.
The consultancy's “Can Guyana and Suriname LNG compete against new global supply?” report predicts that the two countries could generate up to 12 MM metric tons/year by that point.
The Haimara cluster (the 12th discovery in the Exxon Mobil-operated Stabroek Block offshore Guyana in February 2019) and the Petronas-operated Sloanea in Suriname's Block 52 in partnership with Exxon Mobil, could collectively hold 13 Tcf of non-associated gas.
Theoretically, these resources could be developed as LNG at a breakeven price of about $6/MMbtu, excluding shipping and regasification costs, WoodMac reported.
Globally there is a requirement for 105 MMt/year of pre-final investment decision (pre-FID) LNG to close the supply/demand gap by 2035, the authors said.
Amanda Bandeira, research analyst, Latin America Upstream Oil and Gas for Wood Mackenzie, said, “US and Qatar LNG dominance is rapidly growing, but there is a supply window in the mid-2030s coming in part from President Biden's pause on approving new US LNG export projects.
“In this environment, Guyana and Suriname can offer a new cost-competitive LNG supply source and serve as regional suppliers, holding shipping costs advantage to address Caribbean and South American demand. They are also on par with US Gulf and West Africa projects to deliver to the main demand centers in Southeast Asia.”
Although Suriname at present has no established arrangements for non-associated gas developments, the consultants nevertheless expect the Block 52 project to go forward and deliver first gas in 2031.
This is because the government and project partners have agreed to a 10-year tax break, according to Luiz Hayum, principal analyst, Latin America Upstream at Wood Mackenzie.
He added, “In Guyana, the government and upstream partners’ alignment on fiscal terms and commercial structure are less advanced, and any disputes could delay the project first gas beyond 2031.”
