IHS Energy is forecasting that global production capacity will grow at a level that will match consumption from 2004 to 2008 and may even allow a softening of prices. The company forecasts production levels rising to approximately 85.5 MMb/d by 2008. Major projects are coming onstream in Nigeria, Angola, Brazil, Russia, and Kazakhstan, and many smaller projects also are due to come online.
The Middle East member nations will account for around 60% of OPEC's growth in the period to 2008. Outside of OPEC, both Mexico and China will increase their record levels of liquids output and production, IHS Energy says.
Deepwater oil/liquids production in the "Golden Triangle" (US Gulf of Mexico, Brazil, and West Africa) is expected to grow from around 2.5 MMb/d in 2003 to approximately 6.6 MMb/d by 2008, according to IHS Energy.
Brazil accounts for a significant proportion of current deepwater production, some 1.2 MMb/d. This is expected to grow to almost 2.2 MMb/d in 2008. The US Gulf of Mexico, producing about 1.0 MMb/d from deepwater fields in late 2003, is expected to produce nearly 2.0 MMb/d in 2008.
Impressive growth is forecasted from West African deepwater fields in Angola and Nigeria. West African deepwater production of around 300 Mb/d in the latter half of 2003 is forecasted to grow to 2.2 MMb/d in 2008 and will continue to grow robustly thereafter, exceeding production from the USGoM and Brazil.
IHS Energy's production forecast confirms its positive outlook that there are adequate oil resources to satisfy projected demand well beyond the end of this decade.
Political risks, though, in the form of terrorist threats to the oil infrastructure in the Middle East and civil unrest, similar to that which interrupted production in Nigeria and Venezuela, will continue to impart volatility to oil markets.
05-10-04
