Offshore staff
LONDON — Turkish Petroleum Corp. (TPAO) has started production from Phase 1 of the deepwater Sakarya field development in the Black Sea.
This represents Turkey’s first deepwater production and also a “fundamental shift in [the country’s] energy security,” said Ashley Sherman, Wood Mackenzie research director, Caspian & Europe Upstream Oil and Gas.
“To date, Turkey has relied almost entirely on gas imports to meet its demand. Sakarya Phase 1 will put a sizeable dent into the country’s energy import bill, which reached an eye-watering $97 billion in 2022.”
Wood Mackenzie expects Phase 1—onstream three years after the discovery in August 2020—to deliver up to 350 MMcf/d from 10 wells, raising the country’s overall gas output nearly tenfold by the end of this year.
“Its fast-tracked lead time almost rivals Eni’s near-peerless Zohr [offshore] Egypt,” Sherman said. “TPAO never deviated from its 2023 startup guidance, defying some initial skepticism. The political will to develop Sakarya quickly has been immense, especially with presidential elections looming. This project delivery success has been particularly impressive given TPAO’s lack of prior deepwater operating experience and the Black Sea’s logistical constraints.”
Phase 2 could cover almost 30% of Turkey’s gas consumption by 2030, Sherman added, allowing the field to deliver 1.4 Bcf/d.
The scale of Sakarya’s resource has strengthened Turkey’s negotiating power with its gas import suppliers, he suggested, with further contracts, including with Russia and Iran, coming up for renewal by the late 2020s.
“Turkey’s deepwater Black Sea gas resources are of huge political and strategic importance. Sakarya is commercially attractive too, thanks to the country's competitive gas pricing and fiscal terms. Nevertheless, risks abound in the Black Sea since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Although upstream milestones also await in Romanian and Bulgarian waters, the path to gas commercialization could be far less smooth outside of Turkey.”
04.20.2023
