Historically, contract lead times extend when rig availability becomes scarce. The peak came in 2013, when deals for jackups, semisubs and drillships were routinely being fixed at least a year in advance of a campaign getting underway.
The year to date, compared with the 10-year average lead time, is performing almost 9% higher, Wilkie added, but no higher than last year’s record average lead time of 237 days. However, this number remains the longest recorded since the downturn that hit the industry in 2014, when there had been an average 248-day lead time.
As contract durations and rig use continue to grow, combined with decreasing availability and rising day rates, lead times will likely lengthen as operators focus more intently on securing the assets they need for their forthcoming campaigns, she concluded.
This year, drillship fixtures globally are averaging 569 days led by South America (698 days), Mexico (1,080 days), the Mediterranean (500 days), India (451 days) and West Africa (517 days).
For semisubs, the average contract duration is 384 days, with fixtures in South America of 414 days, Mexico at 953 days, the North Sea at 369 days, the Far East 627 days and Australia 309 days.
Jackup demand is driven to a great extent by NOCs, with the biggest demand coming from the Persian Gulf (1,165 days), followed by India (840 days), the Far East (528 days) and Mexico (457 days).
10.24.2023
