In its latest short-term energy outlook, the US EIA has forecast that oil and gas production in the US Gulf of Mexico (GoM) will remain relatively flat over the next year, with new fields offsetting the natural production declines from existing fields.
The EIA based its findings on the results of a new model for forecasting crude oil and natural gas production from the federal areas of the US GoM.
In the outlook, the EIA forecasts that 1.8 MMb/d of crude oil will be produced in the GoM in 2024 and 1.9 MMb/d in 2025, compared with 1.9 MMb/d in 2023.
The agency says it expects natural gas production to average 1.8 Bcf/d in both 2024 and 2025, compared with 2.0 Bcf/d in 2023.
At these volumes, the GoM would contribute about 14% of US oil production and 2% of US marketed natural gas production.
The EIA says that it expects 12 new fields to start production in the GoM during 2024 and 2025, without which it would expect GoM production to decline. Seven of these fields will be developed using subsea tiebacks to existing FPUs.
The agency also says that it expects four new FPUs to be brought online in this time period, and they will produce crude oil and natural gas from five more fields.
The EIA forecasts that fields that have already started in 2024 will contribute 22,000 b/d of crude oil production in 2024, and fields that will start production in 2024 or 2025 will contribute 231,000 b/d on average in 2025 as additional production comes online and ramps up.
