OSLO, Norway — Gas flows resumed July 21 through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline system in the Baltic Sea to Germany at rates of 60 MMcm/d to 67 MMcm/d.
There had been fears that Gazprom would not restore supply following a maintenance shutdown. However, according to Rystad Energy analyst Karolina Sieminiuk, as more regasification infrastructure comes online in Europe and further LNG deals are signed, Russia should start to see its dominant position in the European gas market waning.
So Moscow has an incentive to keep the gas flowing for the time being to maximize its dollar and euro revenues before Europe’s shift away from Russian supplies gathers momentum.
But even if all maintenance on Nord Stream 1 is completed to schedule, the gas market situation may not improve significantly, with continued concerns that Russia may opt to switch off supplies entirely.
The pipeline’s present throughput is approaching pre-maintenance levels of about 65 MMcm/d, 40% of its full capacity.
The 60% reduction followed an issue related to a turbine in mid-June, which was sent back to Germany last weekend and should reach its destination this Sunday.
On arrival, a few more days will be needed for installation. But even if all goes well, Sieminiuk warned, flows may not return to the full capacity of 160 MMcm/d, with Russian President Vladimir Putin having spoken of uncertainty over restoration of normal levels.
Norway’s gas exports, which account for 23% of Europe’s supplies, hit 335 MMcm/d July 21, up 20 MMcm/d week-on-week following the completion of maintenance and resolution of processing problems at various Norwegian fields.
07.22.2022
